Title : Global lease rounds in 2025: A balanced outlook on frontier and mature exploration
Abstract:
Global oil and gas lease round activity in 2025 is poised to maintain a balanced focus between frontier and mature regions, as countries strive to either revive waning exploration or unlock underexplored basins to sustain long-term production. Approximately 47 licensing rounds across 33 countries are expected to conclude this year, despite a slight year-on-year decline due to geopolitical uncertainties and evolving policy landscapes. Early 2025 activity has already seen the conclusion of nine rounds and the award of over 96,000 km² of acreage, underscoring sustained investor interest.
Notable awards in early 2025 reflect the continued appetite for both onshore and offshore opportunities. Mongolia led frontier activity with a 40,000 km² onshore award in the Gobi Desert, while mature provinces such as Norway’s APA round and Egypt’s Mediterranean offerings saw consistent licensing. Onshore blocks made up nearly 68% of total acreage awarded in early 2025, though offshore areas—particularly in Malaysia, Turkiye, and Bulgaria—also attracted meaningful interest.
Asia has emerged as the most active region in terms of lease rounds, both in number and block size. India’s OALP Bid Round X—the country’s largest ever—spans nearly 192,000 km² across 25 blocks, while Malaysia’s MBR 2025 and Pakistan’s dual rounds reflect a broader push to unlock new reserves. In parallel, South America leads globally in total blocks offered, with Brazil dominating activity through the bulk of 374 blocks available across the region.
Meanwhile, Egypt, Indonesia, and the US are leading in frequency and scale of lease round execution. Egypt, for instance, is managing six rounds this year alone, bolstered by PSA offerings in the Mediterranean and Nile Delta. Indonesia continues to attract interest through direct offers and regular tender rounds, with the Kojo, Binaiya, and Gaea blocks under evaluation. The US maintains a steady schedule of lease rounds in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.
While global lease activity has faced disruptions from policy shifts and geopolitical tensions, several rounds remain under evaluation, including India’s OALP IX, Guyana’s offshore round, and Greece’s long-awaited offshore tender. Africa’s average block size remains high, driven by Algeria’s offerings, while Asia continues to dominate by both volume and acreage. The outlook for the remainder of 2025 indicates steady momentum in lease round activity, shaped by a blend of strategic upstream revitalization, favorable fiscal frameworks, and the pursuit of energy security. Despite cautious investor sentiment in some quarters, high-impact frontier acreage and re-emerging mature basins offer attractive exploration potential for companies seeking competitive advantage in a transforming energy landscape.
